While the history of World War One is well documented, less well-known are the
events leading up to its outbreak. The author of this summary is indebted to two
published works: “The Sleepwalkers – How the World Went to War in 1914” by
Christopher Clark, and “The Guns of August”, by Barbara Tuchman. Online material
has also been utilised.
The Seeds of Conflict
by John Kiley
Was World War One started deliberately? Or did it result from misunderstandings,
mass paranoia, miscalculations and overreaction on a grand scale? Or had
national pride, imperial rivalry and military build-up created such a volatile
environment that the smallest of incidents was likely to trigger a widespread
conflict? In seeking answers a good place to start is the geopolitical situation
in each of the key nations as the 20th century dawned.
THE STARTING POINT
SERBIA
Before being swallowed by the Ottoman Empire in the 14th century
Serbia was itself a proud Empire encompassing most of Montenegro, parts of
Romania, all of Albania and most of northern Greece as well as present day
Serbia. But it never lost its sense of identity nor its desire to regain its
former glory. As the Ottoman influence began to wane Serbia finally had its
independence internationally recognised in 1878. But for the more radical
patriots that wasn’t enough. They wanted to expand Serbia into all neighbouring
areas containing a significant Serbian population. Combining with Bulgaria,
Greece and Romania Serbia attacked the Ottoman Empire in 1912 and succeeded in
winning large swathes of territory. After this “First Balkan War” Serbia almost
doubled in size, taking in Kosovo, Albania, sharing Macedonia with Bulgaria and
nibbling at portions of Austria-Hungary. A further war broke out when Serbia,
Romania and Greece attacked Bulgaria and deprived them of some of the territory
they had gained in the earlier conflict. Distrust between Serbia and Bulgaria
festered from then on.
There was also distrust between Serbia and the vast territory of Austria-Hungary
to the north, a major European power which had annexed Serbia’s neighbour Bosnia
in 1908.This enraged Serbia as many Serbs lived in Bosnia. Even more alarming
was a declaration by the aging Austro-Hungarian Emperor’s heir-apparent Franz
Ferdinand that he would be devolving power back to local territories when he
became Emperor. If this were to happen in Bosnia Serbs would be a minority in a
region they believed to be part of greater Serbia.
Alarmed by this possibility a terrorist group dubbed the “Black Hand” resolved
to assassinate Ferdinand. They recruited a small group of Bosnian-born Serbs
and, after providing them with arms, explosives and training, smuggled them back
to Bosnia’s capital Sarajevo where Franz Ferdinand was due to visit on 28 June,
1914.
The assassination was successful. 19 year old Gavril Princip fired the fatal
shot.
AUSTRIA-HUNGARY
The biggest threat to this sprawling territory was the neighbouring Ottoman
Empire which reached well into Europe. Formerly part of Ottoman territory,
Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia had been granted independence and were seen by
Austria-Hungary as a buffer between them and the Ottomans. Russia, also desiring
a buffer on their southern border, had negotiated the 1878 Treaty of Berlin
which granted the three countries their independence.
Austria-Hungary was all too aware of Serbia’s indignation over their annexation
of Bosnia and was also aware it had a strong standing army. When the
assassination of Franz Ferdinand occurred alarm bells rang. What might Serbia do
next?
Existing international agreements and treaties were almost certain to swing into
action if war broke out between Serbia and Austria-Hungary. Germany was
committed to supporting Austria-Hungary and Russia was equally committed to
Serbia’s defence. France was committed to supporting Russia. The risks of total
European war were obvious.
Austria-Hungary chose to confront Serbia with a list of demands to be met within
48 hours. Serbia met them all except one – it refused to allow Austria-Hungary
to enter Serbia and carry out its own investigation of the assassination plot.
The overall wording of Serbia’s response indicated that they were doing their
utmost to meet the demands but Austria-Hungary was not satisfied. In
consultation with Germany, they considered their options.
RUSSIA
Since the Treaty of Berlin, which gave autonomy to Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece,
Russia had given its support to Bulgaria – being strategically placed on the
Black Sea coast and likely to be a useful ally should Russia challenge the
Ottomans for mastery over the Turkish Straits and access to the Mediterranean.
But when Bulgaria accepted a loan from Germany and showed signs of warming
towards Austria-Hungary Russia changed its allegiance. Serbia and Romania became
Russia’s only dependants in the Balkan peninsula, the strategically important
region separating it from Austria-Hungary and the lesser threat from the
Ottomans. Widening the geopolitical jigsaw, Russia had also formed an alliance
with France to counter any threat from Germany on its western border.
Russia observed the assassination event in Sarajevo with alarm, fearing a
belligerent response from Austria-Hungary.
FRANCE
Even in 1914 France was still smarting from the humiliation of defeat at the
hands of Prussia in 1870-71, with the accompanying loss of the valuable
industrial provinces of Alsace and Lorraine. France thirsted for revenge and saw
the situation in the Balkans as a possible opportunity to win a war against
Germany before the newly unified state was able to fully prepare militarily. A
powerful alliance was formed between France and Russia, with France providing
the finance for major infrastructural development in Russia, particularly
railways to assist rapid troop movements. As the Balkan crisis unfolded serious
talks were held between the two allies to map out the likely scenario should
Germany come to the aid of Austria-Hungary. France urged Russia to amass its
troops on Germany’s eastern border, while France would close in on the west.
This was agreed as the best option, rather than have Russia intervene directly
in the Austria-Hungary / Serbia conflict. Politics and self-interest prevailed,
despite Serbia being the country in need of help from Russia.
GERMANY
As a result of a Triple Alliance with Austria-Hungary and Italy, Germany was
committed to supporting Austria-Hungary if Serbia were to start a war with them.
Initially Germany was reluctant to engage in hostilities but saw Russia as a
threat and feared its rapidly developing economy, supply of arms and huge
manpower resources. This prompted a change of heart and by 1914 Germany had
decided that war was almost certain and, as Russia was only three years into its
five year military enlargement plan it would be in Germany’s best interests to
engage them now rather than later.
Italy’s commitment to the Triple Alliance was never more than lukewarm and after
war had broken out they eventually came in on the side of France and its allies.
BRITAIN
Britain was the furthest removed from the Balkan crisis, both geographically and
politically. Its closest link was the “Entente Cordiale” – a political (not
military) agreement with France signed in 1904 which primarily served as a means
of guaranteeing spheres of influence and defining colonial boundaries. But the
close relationship between France and Russia was awkward for Britain. Russia and
Britain had been rivals throughout most of the 19th century, had
fought a war in Crimea, had vied for supremacy in Afghanistan and had contested
various areas in the Middle East and Tibet. Russia’s designs on the Turkish
Straits were also a concern to Britain as this threatened Britain’s prize
colony, India. In an attempt to put the 19th century hostilities
behind them, an Anglo-Russian convention was signed in 1907. This effectively
converted the existing Entente Cordiale into a triple entente.
In the looming crisis Britain’s position was not as clear-cut as that of its
entente partners. Neither Austria-Hungary nor its Alliance partners were a
direct threat to Britain. If Russia or France deliberately chose to intervene
the non-military entente agreement would not oblige Britain to also become
involved. In fact, when war appeared inevitable Britain was considering three
options: remain neutral, support France and Russia, or support Germany.
Britain admired Germany. It was perceived to be leading the world educationally
and culturally and had an exemplary philosophical tradition. Moreover, the two
royal families were related – Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II was the grandson of
Queen Victoria and cousin of the reigning monarch, George V. But a severe threat
to the cordial relationship was Germany’s massive naval build-up, in particular
its U-boat programme. Britain could claim the biggest and best equipped navy in
the world and viewed the German build-up as at least a threat, if not an open
act of aggression.
WAR
On 28 July, 1914 Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia and set off the chain of
events that led to World War I. Germany had left Austria-Hungary in no doubt
that their invasion of Serbia was justified given that the demands made on them
after the assassination had not been fully met. Germany now tried to
second-guess Russia’s next move. Would they intervene, prompting Austria-Hungary
to call on Germany for help? Germany thought not, assessing that Russia was not
yet fully prepared for a wider war.
Russia, on the other hand, saw war as extremely likely. They correctly predicted
Austria-Hungary’s attack on Serbia. This prompted Russia to implement a partial
mobilisation. In the days following, Germany was alarmed by reports of Russian
troop movements and on 30 July Russia went further and ordered full
mobilisation. Two days later Germany declared war on Russia. Aware that France
was committed by treaty to support Russia, after a further two days Germany
declared war on France. The fuse was lit.
For the entire month of July Britain gave no sign of wishing to become involved.
Despite a treaty guaranteeing the neutrality of Belgium, a brief incursion by
Germany through the Ardennes in southern Belgium en route to France was seen as
a minor issue. Only when the Foreign Secretary managed to persuade the cabinet
that Britain’s access to the Mediterranean and its Asian colonies could be in
danger should Germany and Austria-Hungary prevail in a European-wide conflict
did Britain take the final step of declaring war on Germany on 4 August, 1914.
WHO WAS TO BLAME?
It can be argued that the First World War was nobody’s fault - and everybody’s
fault.
Britain
could have stayed out. It was not obliged by the Entente Cordiale with France to
provide military support after Germany had declared war on them. Britain’s
mainland was not threatened. The truth is that by now Britain wanted to fight
Germany. Germany was engaged in a massive naval build-up and the need to defeat
her before she came close to matching Britain’s naval superiority was seen as
paramount. For her part, Germany had declared its naval build up to be purely
defensive.
Germany
did not have to issue Austria-Hungary with the so-called “blank cheque” -
guaranteeing support whatever it decided to do. Had Germany left Austria-Hungary
to deal with the matter on its own the war would have remained confined to the
Balkans, even if Russia had intervened. There was no reason for Germany to
declare war on France with whom she had no direct quarrel.
Russia
had long viewed Germany as a threat, and more so when its armaments and naval
build-up was set in motion in 1911. It was aware that Serbia was under threat
from Austria-Hungary after the assassinations and that Serbia would be looking
to Russia for support. Russia, in its turn, did not want the influence or
presence of Austria-Hungary to dominate the Balkan region – a key security area
for Russia. Aware of Germany’s backing for Austria-Hungary, it became even more
paranoid. It chose to mobilise its forces, scaring Germany into its own
preparations for war. As the first country to mobilise apart from the initial
combatants Russia must bear some responsibility for spreading the conflict.
France
saw the likelihood of a European war as a perfect opportunity to wage a
two-front war against Germany, its bitter enemy since the Franco-Prussian war.
Even without the guarantee of British support it was ready to risk all to regain
its lost territory and tackle Germany by combining with Russia. There was no
other reason for France to engage in a war that could have been confined to the
Balkans. She had no strategic interest in that region.
The involvement of the Ottoman Empire
was the direct result of a treaty with Germany. It saw an opportunity to cement
its hold on the Dardanelles – under severe threat from Russia.
It’s easy to lay the blame on
Austria-Hungary for triggering the entire war. Had they stayed out of Serbia
the conflict might never have occurred. But they can’t be held responsible for
its escalation to such a global scale. They had been provoked by the action of a
terrorist assassin. Serbia had a strong army and a history of mistreating
non-Serbs in its conquered territory. It also had declared its desire to regain
all Serb inhabited lands which included Austro-Hungarian territory. Nonetheless
more thought could perhaps have been given to the fact that other nations were
lining up to participate in a war that Austria-Hungary could have refrained from
triggering.
Finally, Serbia. The original
flamethrower? Or the original victim? It was a small nation but inclined to flex
its muscles and was seen as a threat by most of its neighbours. It can be
speculated that, had Serbia accepted all Austria-Hungary’s demands there would
have been no war, not even in the Balkans. But Serbia can be forgiven for not
lying down – the demands were unreasonable. Looking across the border at Bosnia,
occupied and annexed by Austria-Hungary, Serbia was aware it could face the same
fate and see its dream of restoring greater Serbia fade away.
All in all, it was paranoia, perceived threats, old animosities, treaty
commitments and above all, nationalism, that all came together to ignite an
event that drew in more than twenty countries, lasted four years and cost over
twenty million lives.
Rightly or wrongly, Germany was apportioned most of the blame in the post-war
peace conferences and was made to pay the heaviest price in reparations. One
German soldier was incensed by this verdict and vowed to seek revenge. His name
was Adolf Hitler.